Updated Nov 23: Clarified reasoning in #1
The current scientific consensus shows that vaccine mandates are useless for maintaining a safe environment. As a result, millions of Americans have lost their jobs and faced discrimination for no good reason.
1. Vaccine mandates can't stop infection. The efficacy of vaccines wanes after six months, specifically in preventing symptomatic reinfection. The most significant drop is in the J&J shot, with an efficacy drop from 88% to 3% after half a year, according to a recent study.
Without a consistent booster forever, the vaccinated face dropping levels of protection. Over time, those vaccinated with J&J will see infection rates similar to the unvaccinated. Those vaccinated with mRNA vaccines, like Pfizer and Moderna, will also see significant drops in efficacy, although less than J&J.
With dropping rates of efficacy, it's clear that mandates cannot fully prevent infection. So, if the goal of mandates is to prevent viral infection, they fail.
2. Vaccine mandates don't stop transmission. The infected and vaccinated are transmitting the virus at levels similar to the infected and unvaccinated. According to a study from California, there is no significant difference in the viral load between infected vaccinated and unvaccinated people.
Viral load is the crucial metric when looking at transmission. After six months of the vaccine, the vaccinated have significantly lowered protected from infection. After infection, they're just as likely to spread the virus. So, if the goal of mandates is to prevent viral transmission, they fail again.
3. Vaccine mandates discriminate against real protection, natural immunity. Even though the CDC denies it, it's common knowledge at this point that natural immunity provides much better protection against delta reinfection compared to a double dose of the vaccine.
If our goal is to prevent transmission and infection, the naturally immune should be prioritized and welcomed even above the vaccinated. This is not the case. Essential workers are fired for being unvaccinated, even if they have natural immunity and are scientifically safer. If the goal of mandates is only to allow those deemed safe, they fail again.
The following scenario illustrates the lack of scientific basis behind vaccine mandates:
Some hospitals bar unvaccinated family members from visiting their loved ones. The vaccinated are welcome to come. Let's say vaccinated Bob was allowed to visit his family, and unvaccinated John was told to stay at home.
With all the current scientific data, vaccinated Bob could see infection at the same rates as unvaccinated John. Bob could transmit the virus at the same rates as John. And ultimately, there is very little difference between Bob and John when it comes to public safety and therefore no valid reason to discriminate against unvaccinated John.
The only real way to protect institutions from transmission and infection would be to bar those actively sick and transmitting the virus. That would require serious investment in our testing technology to produce quick and highly accurate tests. Until that happens, vaccine mandates are wrong, useless, and discriminatory.