What happened: According to a new poll, white suburban women have shifted to Republicans by 27 percent. When the poll was last conducted in August, white suburban women favored Democrats by 12 percent. They now prefer Republicans by 15 percent.

Why it matters: The white suburban woman voting bloc is highly influential in national elections. They were a significant driver in the Democratic midterm victories in 2018 and Trump’s loss in 2020. Many poll respondents are concerned about inflation, fixed incomes, and gas prices and are displeased with Democrat performance.

Monetary versus social issues: The poll showed that white suburban women still trust Democrats more on social issues like abortion but saw the economy as more important. Democrats spent more than $320 million on abortion messaging, ten times more than they spent on economic messaging, which many analysts now consider a tactical mistake.

Trump would win right now: In another interesting finding, the poll results show that if the 2024 election were held between President Biden and former President Donald Trump right now, 52 percent of white suburban women would vote for Trump and only 41 percent for Biden. These projections would likely mean a victory for Trump, whose 2024 campaign announcement is imminent.